The unrest in Egypt began seriously to worry the markets. Monday morning, the Tokyo Stock Exchange lost 1.2% and Paris lost 1.12% at the opening. However, as recalled by the New York Times Monday, the healthy financial market in New York had been affected either by the crisis in the eurozone, either by trade squabbles between the U.S. and China. So why Egypt?
It's the return of the specter of an outbreak of black gold. Monday morning, the price of a barrel of crude in London was close to the symbolic $ 100 (99.33), a level it had not met since October 2008. Yet Egypt is only the 30th largest oil producer. But the Suez Canal is an important regional role in transportation."A cargo of oil on six carries," said FRANCE 24 Cécile Antonin, a specialist in energy markets at OFCE-Sciences Po
Every day, nearly 2 million barrels of crude oil pass through this channel. Admittedly, this represents only 2% of world production, but "prices are calculated according to supply more or less compared to the previous situation," said Cecile Antonin. Above all, the oil passing through the Suez Canal is mainly destined for Europe and the United States. The Egyptian authorities have sought to reassure Monday.They stated that the traffic was for the time absolutely unaffected by the protests.
The risk of Algeria
The risk of contagion to other countries in the region most important oil markets, like Saudi Arabia or Iran, also gives a cold sweat to financial analysts. "To avoid social unrest, these countries might be tempted to increase social spending and then to pass on the price of oil," and fears a specialist oil at Goldman Sachs in the Wall Street Journal.
"Do not forget the countries of North Africa such as Algeria in the equation," recalls Cecilia Antonin.If the regime of Abdelaziz Bouteflika was also shaken, soaring prices could accelerate. Algeria is producing more oil than Egypt, and especially this country is a member of OPEC and thus a strategic player in this sector.
There are no worries that oil. Egypt is also the largest importer of wheat. Some fear that to make reservations, the Mubarak regime is still increasing its demand. "Currently, the commodity markets are so tight that the slightest change will raise prices," says Cécile Antonin. A situation particularly disturbing that the spectrum of riots in 2008 is increasingly present.
